You have done a very good job mapping out the demands and how many times the pump will cycle on and off. The only thing you did not take into consideration was the number of times the pump would already be running for a demand like a shower, while at the same time in another part of the house someone flushes a toilet, washes their toothbrush, or uses water in any other way. When the pump is already running, supplying water to a shower or washing machine, and someone elsewhere uses water for any reason, the pump does not see an extra cycle.
Since most people are up and getting ready for school or work at the same time, we have found that the pump may run continuously for an hour or so. The CSV varies the flow to match a shower, then opens more for an additional shower, even more if someone flushes a toilet, then resets itself to a single shower again. All of this happens with only one cycle. Only when a toilet is flushed by itself, during a time when no other water is being used in the house, will the single toilet flush cause a cycle on its own. This actually cuts the number of cycles you have added up in half if not less.
But even considering that every toilet flush will cause a cycle as you describe, the difference between 40 cycles and 20 cycles per day is not going to reduce the life of the pump by very much. Real damage from cycling occurs when running sprinklers or a heat pump for many hours a day, which can cause hundreds of cycles per day. Eliminating all these cycles for long term uses of water far outweighs an extra 20 cycles per day for using the small pressure tank method.
I have even been known to run my irrigation zones during the same time everyone is getting ready for school and work. This way the pump only cycles once in the morning, because it stays running the entire time everyone in the house is using water. Not that overlapping the irrigation zone with a high demand time for the house is necessary, but it does eliminate ALL cycling during this period of time.
I also use to believe that a 20 gallon size tank with 5 gallons of usable water was needed. However, many installers, putting in thousands of systems with a small tank, over more than a dozen years or so, have taught me that a large tank is not necessary. Although, a CSV will work with any size tank, so use whatever size you are comfortable with. I just believe that in most cases, any larger than a 4.5 gallon tank is a waste of space and money.
Thanks Dave